The Fix’s Aaron Blake breaks under what the Virginia and new Jersey vote results can mean because that the 2022 midterm elections. (JM Rieger/The Washington Post)

After their over-performances in Virginia and new Jersey last week (and the big win in Virginia’s governor’s race), Republicans space feeling quite confident around taking back the majorities in conference in following November’s midterm elections.

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We deserve to see why. A year out from the midterms, chairman Biden is unpopular, Americans are spooked by this weird pandemic economy, and also Republicans think Democrats’ legislative branch agenda is politics unpalatable.

But democracy have gained some assists in their initiative to host control. Those include at an early stage GOP retirements and now Republicans’ dream candidate in brand-new Hampshire, Gov. Kris Sununu (R), announcing Tuesday he’s not going to operation for Senate.

Here’s a look in ~ what needs to happen for republicans to take ago the Senate and also the home of Representatives next year.

Where the stands now: The room is split in a rare 50-50 tie between parties, but, technically, the autonomous caucus has actually the majority, because Vice president Harris (D) casts the tiebreaking vote.

What Republicans require for the majority: simply to net one seat. It is it. Then, the Senate would certainly stand at 51-49, through Republicans having a one-vote majority.

Where Republicans have a opportunity to choose up seats: castle eyeing at the very least three purple claims where Democrats are running because that reelection: Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. The great news because that Democrats is that these space all claims that Biden won in 2020, albeit no by much. The negative news for Democrats is that Biden winner Virginia by a larger margin than any type of of these claims — and Virginia Democrats lost all 3 statewide races last week and their state home majority.

Candidates matter, too, and there it’s a mixed bag for Republicans. In Georgia, previous president Donald trumped endorsed former NFL player Herschel Walker despite allegations of residential violence versus him — one of several Republican Senate candidates through ugly pasts. (Walker has said altercations with his wife happened before he known he to be struggling mentally.)

In Pennsylvania, the estranged wife of a peak candidate, Sean Parnell, additionally endorsed by Trump, accused that of strangling her and also hitting his young children. (Parnell denies this.) The head the Senate Republicans’ project arm newly wouldn’t say whether Parnell is the appropriate candidate for the job.

But in Georgia, in ~ least, the Republican facility has come about to pedestrian after seeing how well the fundraises; Senate decimal Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) freshly endorsed him.

New Hampshire to be on Republicans’ priority list to knock off a Senate Democrat, yet Republicans might need to reassess that, currently that Sununu announced he is not going to run versus Sen. Maggie Hassan (D). He determined instead to run for reelection together governor. Former senator Kelly Ayotte (R) probably won’t operation either. Republicans require to find a candidate to do this race super compete again.

It’s not all bad for Senate Democrats: They, too, have chances to pick up seats and mitigate any losses. Republicans room retiring following year in vain states consisting of North Carolina and Pennsylvania. That could significantly help Democrats, since it’s less complicated to success an open Senate seat than to kick out a sit senator.

Democrats have actually come close yet had trouble winning races freshly in phibìc Carolina, a state that barely voted for Trump twice. However this time, Trump could be making points harder because that Republicans. A former Republican governor, beat McCrory, is running, and he’s among the best names in the race. Yet Trump endorsed Rep. Ted Budd (R) instead, and also he’s getting most the the right-wing attention as a result.

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Democrats room counting on messy Republican infighting this year throughout primary season to assist them win races. While republic beat each other up in states including Pennsylvania, Democrats hope they have the right to coalesce about candidates who can start increasing money for the general election. (Republicans argue the Democrats in this primaries are relocating too far left to it is in electable in these purple states.)

Democrats also are do a play at trying come knock turn off Sen. Ron Johnson (R) in Wisconsin, if he no retire first. That’s an additional state Biden barely won that could be fairly competitive for Democrats.